Themes In the Likely Event Rebecca Yarros

Love Versus Duty in In the Likely Event: A Thematic Analysis

Thematic Claim: Love and Duty as Incompatible Forces

In In the Likely Event, Rebecca Yarros argues that genuine love cannot flourish until the characters stop treating duty as an absolute command and instead choose each other. The novel pits personal desire (love, happiness, vulnerability) against professional obligation (military service, political ambition, family loyalty) in a cycle of sacrifice that nearly destroys the protagonists. Only by breaking that cycle—Nate leaving the army and Izzy quitting her political job—do they finally achieve the future they always wanted. The thematic claim is that love requires deliberate, mutual choice, not the passive acceptance of fate or duty.

Tracing the Theme Across the Plot

1. Early Years: The Duty to Wait and the Duty to Serve

From their first meeting on the ill-fated Flight 826 in 2011, Nate and Izzy are bound by an unspoken understanding that his military service comes first. In Palau (Chapter 22), Izzy confesses her love, but Nate rejects it, saying he is not good enough for her and that his nightmares and compartmentalization would ruin her. He chooses his duty as a Special Forces soldier over the relationship, telling her, “I can only give you what I have, Izzy. I know it’s not enough, but it’s all I have.” Izzy, in turn, chooses to accept this partial love because she believes she cannot ask him to leave his calling. Their agreement to live on “possibilities” (Chapter 12) becomes a long-term deferral of happiness—each prioritises duty over love, and both end up waiting in pain.

Later, when Izzy graduates and interviews at law firms, she considers moving to Tacoma or Seattle to be near Nate (Chapter 20). He reveals he has passed Special Forces selection and will be stationed at Fort Bragg. Rather than ask her to compromise her career, he tells her, “You’re probably interviewing at all the glitzy firms, right?…Fayetteville doesn’t have those.” He prioritises his duty to the military over her desire to be together, and she reluctantly accepts it, returning to DC to work for a political figure. This pattern establishes duty as the engine that separates them.

2. Kabul Reunion: Duty Cloaked as Love, Love Cloaked as Duty

Three years later, in August 2021, Nate is assigned to protect a congressional aide in Kabul—Izzy. Their reunion reveals that both have been secretly motivated by love disguised as duty. Nate learns from Serena that Izzy took a job with Senator Lauren, who was pushing legislation to end the war, because of him (Chapter 13). Izzy admits, “I pulled every string I had to get here” —not just for Serena, but partly to see Nate. Meanwhile, Nate refuses to assign another guard to Izzy, declaring, “Because that’s all I’ve done since I met you, Isabeau” (Chapter 23). His professional duty as her protector is indistinguishable from his personal love.

Yet duty still dominates. Izzy refuses to leave Kabul without her sister Serena, who stays because of her own duty as a war journalist: “I’m here doing exactly what I’m supposed to be doing. This is the longest assignment I’ve ever been given. I fought for it, and I’m not about to end it early” (Chapter 13). Izzy’s loyalty to Serena—a form of familial duty—overrides her own safety and her love for Nate. Nate, bound by his orders, must put her on a helicopter even though it means they will separate again. The climax of this conflict occurs when Izzy demands “a day” to wait for Serena, reminding Nate of “all the years I spent waiting for you” (Chapter 23). Here, duty becomes a weapon: each character uses it to justify their stance, and love is pushed aside.

3. Resolution: Choosing Love Over All Duties

After the harrowing evacuation, Nate returns to Fort Bragg and begins therapy for PTSD and survivor’s guilt (Chapter 32). He confesses to his therapist that he has been talking to a dead friend—a sign that his duty to his fallen comrades has trapped him in guilt. The turning point comes when he decides to leave the military. In the Maldives (Chapter 33), Izzy quits her political job and boards a flight trusting that Nate’s love is real. Nate surprises her on the same flight, revealing he has separated from the army and has started treatment. They promise to “stop leaving their relationship to fate” and commit to a shared future.

The epilogue, set five years later in Maine, confirms this transformation. Nate is now a teacher, grading papers; Izzy works for a nonprofit. They live in domestic peace surrounded by nature. When they decide to “abandon work and go to bed”, the narrator explicitly states “work can wait because they have finally achieved forever.” This final image directly refutes the earlier sacrifices: love no longer defers to duty. The thematic arc is completed when both characters willingly shed their professional identities to be together.

Character and Symbol Connections

Characters

  • Nathaniel Phelan: Embodies the tension between soldierly duty and romantic love. He repeatedly chooses deployment over relationship, believing he must protect Izzy from the darkness of his world. Only when he renounces the military and seeks therapy does love become possible.
  • Isabeau “Izzy” Astor: Her duty is twofold: to her family’s political expectations and to her sister Serena. By taking a job with Senator Lauren, she tries to end the war that takes Nate away, mixing love with duty. She finally quits that career to trust Nate’s love.
  • Serena Astor: As a war journalist, she chooses professional duty over personal safety and sisterly bonding. Her refusal to leave Afghanistan forces Izzy to choose between love for Serena and love for Nate, highlighting how duty can split familial bonds.
  • Jeremy Covington: Izzy’s fiancé represents the duty to family and social standing. Their engagement is a political arrangement with no love. Izzy breaks it off, acknowledging “I made a mistake when I said yes, and now I’m remedying it.” He is a foil to Nate: Jeremy demands duty, Nate inspires love.
  • Torres (Julian Torres): Nate’s friend and fellow soldier who urges him to seek help (Chapter 32). Torres represents the duty to comrades, but also the possibility of healing from duty’s wounds.

Symbols

  • The Engagement Ring: Jeremy’s ring symbolises duty-bound partnership—a loveless alliance based on social obligation. Izzy takes it off in Kabul, choosing the messy, real love with Nate over the clean duty of a political marriage. The ring reappears when Nate gives her diamond stud earrings (Chapter 20) as a token of genuine love, contrasting the empty ring.
  • The iPod and Music: Shared playlists and lyrics become a private language between Nate and Izzy, representing emotional intimacy that bypasses duty. Music reminds them of who they are outside their roles.
  • Plane Crash (Flight 826): The crash that brings them together also symbolises the violent collision of love and duty. They survive the crash, but duty keeps crashing into their relationship for years afterward. The final flight to the Maldives is a reprise: this time they choose the plane knowing they will land together.
  • The Family Farm (Maine): In the epilogue, the farm is a space outside duty—no military base, no political office. It represents the sanctuary love creates when duty is abandoned.

Complexity and Contradiction

The novel does not present duty as wholly evil. Nate’s duty to his country and comrades is portrayed as honourable; Serena’s duty to bear witness is noble. The contradiction lies in how these virtues become tools of avoidance. Nate uses his career to hide from emotional vulnerability; Izzy uses her political mission to hide from her broken heart. The story suggests that duty can coexist with love only when it is freely chosen rather than enforced by guilt. In the end, both characters find new, smaller duties—teaching, nonprofit work—that support their love rather than compete with it.

Another layer of complexity is that Izzy’s duty to her family nearly overrides her autonomy. Her father and fiancé treat her as a “trophy”, expecting her to follow the political script. By rejecting that script, she claims agency. Similarly, Nate’s duty to the memory of a dead friend (his guilt) is a form of self-punishment he must release. The novel argues that some duties are false gods—what matters is the duty to one’s own happiness and to the person you love.

Study Questions and Answers

  1. How does Nate’s decision to join Special Forces reflect the theme of love versus duty?

    • Nate chooses to enter Special Forces despite knowing it will deepen the distance between him and Izzy (Chapter 20). He prioritises his duty to serve his country and his bond with comrades (like Torres) over the possibility of a civilian life with Izzy. This choice causes Izzy to wait years, and it takes the near-disaster in Kabul for them to confront the cost.

  2. Why does Serena refuse to leave Afghanistan, and what does her choice reveal about duty?

    • Serena stays because she believes her duty as a journalist is to bear witness and because she refuses to abandon Taj, the interpreter (Chapter 13). Her choice pits professional integrity and ethical duty against the love and worry her sister feels. Serena’s arc shows that duty can be a genuine calling, not merely an excuse.

  3. How does the symbol of the engagement ring evolve over the novel?

    • Jeremy’s engagement ring symbolises a loveless obligation to family and society. Izzy removes it after realizing Nate’s love is impossible to replace (Chapter 15). Later, Nate’s gift of diamond earrings (Chapter 20) represents a loving commitment without formal duty. In the epilogue, no ring is mentioned—love no longer needs a symbol of obligation.

  4. In what way does the plane crash both unite and separate Nate and Izzy?

    • The crash of Flight 826 in 2011 brings them together for survival, creating an intense bond. Yet the crash also symbolises the catastrophe that military and political duty keep causing in their relationship. Every separation after the crash feels like a second crash. The final flight to the Maldives in Chapter 33 is a deliberate choice to not leave fate to chance, breaking the cycle.

  5. Contrast Nate’s behavior in Palau (Chapter 22) with his behavior in the Maldives (Chapter 33). What changed?

    • In Palau, Nate refuses Izzy’s declaration of love, insisting he is not good enough, and hides his pain behind duty. By the Maldives, he has left the military, entered therapy, and actively commits to Izzy. The change comes from acknowledging that his duty to his own mental health and to her matters more than his professional identity. He stops letting guilt dictate his choices.

For Further Reading