Chapter summaries In the Likely Event Rebecca Yarros

Chapter 16 Summary & Analysis: Nathaniel’s Birthday Visit and the Cost of Timing

⚠️ Spoiler Warning: This guide contains detailed spoilers for the entire novel. Proceed only if you've finished reading or are comfortable knowing the plot.

Summary (Chronological)

Nathaniel arrives in Georgetown, March 2015, for a two-day birthday visit with Izzy, after coordinating the surprise with her sister Serena. He is on a weekend pass before completing reintegration training following a nine-month deployment. At a crowded bar, Nate struggles with anxiety—too many people, too few exits, every brush against him triggering combat flashbacks. Izzy notices his discomfort and suggests they leave after one drink.

Back at her apartment, they share cupcakes and watch Ladyhawke. The intimacy escalates: they kiss, Nate undresses Izzy, and he brings her to climax with his hands. But when she reaches for his jeans, he stops. He confesses he’s been reassigned to Joint Base Lewis-McChord in Washington State for three years, with another deployment looming. He refuses to start a long-distance relationship, believing it would destroy their chance at a future. Izzy asks if he’s considered leaving the military; Nate deflects with a pretend fantasy of opening a grilled cheese restaurant. The chapter closes with Izzy inviting him to bed “just to sleep,” and Nate follows, knowing he will lie awake aching for her.

Key Events

  • Nate arrives in Georgetown to surprise Izzy for her birthday, arranged through Serena.
  • At a loud bar, Nate’s PTSD symptoms spike; Izzy observes his distress and suggests they leave.
  • They return to her apartment, share cupcakes, and watch Ladyhawke.
  • Sexual tension builds; they kiss and Nate performs oral sex, bringing Izzy to orgasm.
  • Nate abruptly stops intercourse, revealing his new posting to Joint Base Lewis-McChord for three years plus another deployment.
  • He explains he will not start a long-distance relationship because he wants to preserve their potential future.
  • Izzy asks if he would leave the service; Nate avoids a direct answer but jokes about a restaurant.
  • The chapter ends with Izzy asking him to sleep beside her; Nate agrees despite knowing he will be tormented.

Character Development

  • Nathaniel: His internal conflict deepens. He loves Izzy but believes his military obligations and violent past make him unworthy of her. He demonstrates self-awareness by halting intimacy, prioritizing Izzy’s long-term happiness over immediate gratification. His PTSD—crowd anxiety, intrusive memories of Fitz’s death—shows how the deployment has scarred him emotionally.
  • Isabeau (Izzy): She is perceptive and patient—she notices Nate’s discomfort at the bar and steers them home. Her desire for a real, uninterrupted relationship is clear, but she respects his boundaries. Her willingness to accept “just to sleep” shows maturity and hope.
  • Torres & Fitz: Mentioned only in memory, but Fitz’s death continues to haunt Nate, reinforcing his fear of committing to Izzy while he remains in harm’s way.

Themes, Symbols & Motifs

  • Timing as antagonist: The central conflict is not a lack of love but the impossible timing of Nate’s military career versus Izzy’s law school aspirations. Both recognize the “right” moment is years away.
  • Self-sacrifice: Nate denies his own desires to protect Izzy from the pain of long distance and potential loss. He believes giving her up now is an act of love.
  • Escapism and fantasy: The Ladyhawke movie, the pretend conversation about a grilled cheese restaurant, and the Fiji vacation idea all serve as brief respites from their real-world impossibilities.
  • Home as person: Nate repeatedly associates Izzy with the feeling of “home,” contrasting his transient, violent life.
  • Touch and memory: Physical intimacy becomes a way for Nate to replace traumatic memories (Fitz’s blood) with the sensory imprint of Izzy’s body and perfume.

Why This Chapter Matters

Chapter 16 is the emotional hinge of the novel. It lays bare the central obstacle to Nate and Izzy’s relationship: not infidelity, not misunderstanding, but the structural reality of military service. Nate’s decision to stop before intercourse—despite overwhelming desire—establishes his moral code and his willingness to sacrifice for Izzy’s well-being. The chapter also deepens Nate’s PTSD characterization, grounding his later struggles in the concrete symptoms of hypervigilance and intrusive grief. The farewell scene sets up the long period of separation that will test their connection in the chapters to come.

Study Questions & Answers

1. Why does Nate stop being intimate with Izzy even though he clearly wants to continue?
Nate stops because he knows he is being sent to Joint Base Lewis-McChord for three years with another deployment upcoming. He believes that starting a physical and emotional relationship now would only lead to a painful long-distance situation that would kill their chance at a genuine future. He prioritizes preserving the “possibility” of us over a single night of fulfillment.

2. How does Izzy react when Nate reveals his new posting?
Izzy is initially crushed—her lower lip trembles, she clutches her shirt—but she does not lash out. She asks if he has considered leaving the military, and when he deflects, she plays along with his fantasy of opening a restaurant. Ultimately, she invites him to bed “just to sleep,” showing she values his presence over asserting her hurt.

3. What role does Fitz’s death play in this chapter?
Fitz’s death is a trigger for Nate’s PTSD. When Izzy mentions carrot cake, Nate’s offhand comment about Fitz dying reveals both his unresolved grief and his habit of compartmentalizing trauma. The memory surfaces again during intimacy, reinforcing Nate’s fear that he will bring destruction into Izzy’s life. Fitz’s absence is a silent argument against Nate allowing himself happiness.

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