Serena Astor: The Missing Sister in In the Likely Event

Overview

Serena Astor, the elder sister of Isabeau “Izzy” Astor, is a photojournalist whose disappearance in northern Afghanistan during the chaotic U.S. withdrawal triggers the central crisis of Rebecca Yarros’s In the Likely Event. Though not a point-of-view narrator, Serena’s presence looms over every decision Izzy makes, from secretly altering her congressional itinerary to confronting the unresolved trauma of her relationship with Nathaniel Phelan. Serena embodies the tension between personal safety and professional duty, and her choices force both Izzy and the reader to weigh what it means to be “present” for the people we love.

Plot Role

Serena’s role is that of a catalyst. The novel’s present-day timeline (August 2021) begins with Izzy arriving in Kabul under false pretenses—she has taken a substitute position on a political envoy specifically to locate Serena, who has gone silent during a reporting assignment in Mazar-i-Sharif. Evidence from chapter 5 shows that Izzy admits her true motive to Nate: “she is there because of Serena.” Throughout the Kabul chapters, Izzy’s primary objective is to find Serena and secure her evacuation; this objective justifies her risky decisions, including adding Kunduz and Samangan to the itinerary and fighting State Department bureaucracy for a visa for Serena’s interpreter, Taj Barech.

Serena first appears in person in chapter 11, when Nate’s team brings her to the embassy after Izzy has already been searching for days. She reappears during the evacuation crisis in chapters 30 and 31, ultimately escaping Kabul on a secret plane with Taj—rescued by Nate’s unit at the last moment. Her survival is not guaranteed until the final pages, making her an ongoing source of suspense and emotional urgency.

Motivations and Traits Shown Through Actions

Serena’s primary motivation is professional integrity as a war correspondent, but this surface drive conceals deeper loyalty to her own standards and to her sister. In chapter 13, when Izzy confronts her in Mazar-i-Sharif and begs her to leave immediately, Serena refuses, stating that her six-month assignment is not yet complete and that leaving early would compromise her credibility. This is an explicit fact: the outline records Serena saying, “I’m here doing exactly what I’m supposed to be doing… I’d never be able to hold my head up at the office.” Her refusal comes despite the clear danger of a collapsing regime.

Traits revealed through action include:

Resilience: She remains calm and focused when her convoy is stopped at checkpoints.
Skepticism toward Nate: She questions his reliability in chapter 24, noting that Izzy has barely heard from him in seven months.
Protective instinct: She keeps an eye on Izzy during recovery from the plane crash in chapter 8, whispering support: “We’ll handle it together.” She also provides critical evidence later—giving Izzy Nate’s chain and a dog tag on the evacuation plane.
Professional independence: She does not rely on Izzy’s political connections to escape; she uses her own skills and relationships (e.g., working with interpreter Taj) to navigate the war zone.

Interpretively, Serena’s decision to stay in Afghanistan, even after Izzy risks her own safety to find her, reveals a character who places mission above personal bonds. Yet the novel also shows that this same stubbornness is what makes her an effective photojournalist—and, paradoxically, someone her sister can rely on in non-crisis moments.

Chronological Arc

The timeline for Serena is fragmented because she appears only in specific chapters:

Chapter 8 (2011): Serena is at the hospital after the plane crash, supporting Izzy and handling their parents’ neglect.
Chapters 23–25 (August 2021): Mentioned as the reason Izzy stays in Kabul; Nate learns Izzy will not leave without Serena.
Chapter 11 (August 2021): Serena is brought to the embassy by Nate’s team, reunited with Izzy.
Chapter 13 (November 2021? – note timeline inconsistency possibly due to retelling): Izzy travels to Mazar-i-Sharif and finds Serena, who refuses to leave early.
Chapters 30–31 (August 2021): Serena is rescued from a checkpoint by Nate’s team and evacuated on the same plane as Izzy and Taj.
Epilogue (five years later): While Serena does not appear, her survival is implied by Izzy’s settled life.

Her arc moves from being a missing person to a found but resistant evacuee, then finally to a survivor whose independence is preserved. The arc emphasizes that she is not a passive damsel—she repeatedly chooses to stay until the danger becomes untenable.

Relationships

Izzy Astor: Serena is Izzy’s anchor. In the hospital scene, she is the only family member who shows up for Izzy physically and emotionally. Their parents prioritize the cruise and the business, but Serena remains. The bond is reciprocal: Izzy’s entire Afghanistan mission is motivated by love for Serena, and Serena’s eventual evacuation is made possible by Izzy’s persistence in securing Taj’s visa. A key interaction occurs when Serena offers to publish a photo of Nate to force him out of the unit; Izzy refuses, insisting the choice must be Nate’s. This moment shows that Izzy has learned patience from Serena’s example.

Nathaniel Phelan: Serena initially withholds trust from Nate. She questions why Izzy has not heard from him for months and assumes the worst. However, during the evacuation, she acts as a conduit between the couple—she gives Izzy Nate’s ring and a dog tag, along with his message: “He said to tell you that he loves you, and that he’ll be in touch when it’s time to take your shot.” This gesture indicates a shift toward acceptance.

Taj Barech: The outline establishes that Serena works with Taj as her interpreter and that Izzy secures a visa for him. Though not detailed, the relationship is one of professional trust; Taj risks his life to stay with her until the final escape.

Key Decisions and Consequences

Decision to stay in Afghanistan for the full six-month assignment.
Consequence: She nearly becomes trapped as the Taliban advances. Her delay increases danger for herself, for Izzy, and for Nate’s unit—but also allows her to complete her reporting.
Decision to evacuate when Nate’s team arrives at the checkpoint.
Consequence: She survives and escapes with Taj, allowing her to continue her work and maintain her relationship with Izzy.
Decision to hand over Nate’s ring and dog tag to Izzy on the plane.
Consequence: This action provides Izzy with tangible proof of Nate’s commitment and directly contributes to their eventual reconciliation. It also reveals to Izzy that Nate has been carrying Julian Torres’s dog tag, altering Izzy’s understanding of Nate’s past.
Decision to offer to publish Nate’s photo to force his discharge.
Consequence: Izzy declines, which reinforces the theme that agency must be respected. Serena’s offer, while well-meaning, would have violated Nate’s autonomy.

Theme and Symbol Connections

Serena’s character is a vehicle for multiple themes:

Military sacrifice and PTSD: Serena’s work as a war correspondent places her in the same danger zone as soldiers. Her trauma is hinted at in her black eye and bloody sleeve during the evacuation, and her resilience contrasts with Nate’s internal wounds.
Fate versus timing: Serena’s late arrival on the secret plane echoes the larger question of whether the right person appears at the right moment. She arrives because Nate’s team acts, not because of fate.
Love versus duty: Serena embodies the conflict between professional duty and familial love. She chooses duty until the very end, showing that love does not always override responsibility.
Trauma recovery: Serena helps Izzy process the plane crash trauma by being present. Their shared experience of unstable parents shapes their reliance on each other.
Communication and miscommunication: Serena’s silence and subsequent reappearance mirror the broken communication between Izzy and Nate. Her eventual message for Nate helps bridge the gap.

Symbolically, Serena’s camera represents the power of bearing witness. She is the one who captures visual truth, just as the narrative itself seeks truth about war and love. The dog tag she passes to Izzy becomes a symbol of the hidden costs carried by soldiers and those who love them.

5 Book-Specific Questions and Answers

1. Why does Serena refuse to leave Afghanistan when Izzy first finds her in Mazar-i-Sharif?
Serena insists she has a remaining month on her assignment and that leaving early would compromise her professional reputation. She tells Izzy she cannot hold her head up at her office if she abandons her post.

2. How does Serena help Izzy and Nate’s relationship during the evacuation?
On the secret plane, Serena gives Izzy Nate’s chain with the ring and a dog tag belonging to Julian Torres. She relays Nate’s message that he loves Izzy and will contact her when it is time to “take your shot.” This act provides the closure and hope Izzy needs to wait for him.

3. Does Serena approve of Nate?
Initially, Serena is skeptical. She notes that Izzy has barely heard from Nate in seven months and questions his reliability. However, by the end, she acts as an intermediary, suggesting that Nate’s actions during the evacuation (saving her and Taj) earn her grudging respect.

4. What role does Serena play in Izzy’s recovery from the plane crash in 2011?
Serena stays by Izzy’s bedside at the hospital, offering emotional support and practical help. She also advocates for Izzy’s needs when their parents refuse to come home, whispering that they will handle it together. This solidifies their bond.

5. What does Serena’s dog tag reveal about Nate’s character?
The dog tag belongs to Julian Torres, not Rowell as Izzy assumed. It shows that Nate has been carrying a token of a fallen or close friend (later revealed to be Torres, who is still alive but important to Nate). This underscores Nate’s tendency to carry emotional burdens and his commitment to his comrades, which Izzy must learn to accept.