In the Likely Event Chapter 15 Summary: Izzy Confronts Jeremy

⚠️ Spoiler Warning: This guide contains detailed spoilers for the entire novel. Proceed only if you've finished reading or are comfortable knowing the plot.

Summary

Izzy returns to her suite in Kabul after failing to secure Serena’s evacuation. Her fiancé, Jeremy Covington, has flown in unannounced, ending the six-week silence she had maintained. Izzy is furious, both at his intrusion and at the disappointment she saw on Nate’s face in the hallway. Jeremy begins by framing his visit as a romantic gesture, but quickly reveals his true motives: he needs her back on the campaign trail to satisfy his father and improve his political optics. Izzy confronts him about his six-month affair with Clarisse Betario. Jeremy deflects by accusing Izzy of still being in love with her bodyguard, Nate Phelan, and suggests an open-marriage arrangement where both can pursue outside relationships while maintaining a political alliance. Izzy rejects the proposal, returns the engagement ring, and officially ends their relationship. She asks Sergeant Gray to escort Jeremy out. Alone, Izzy admits to herself that Jeremy was right: she never got her heart back from Nate, and he will always be in the way.

Key Events

Jeremy arrives in Izzy’s Kabul suite without prior notice, ending her six-week avoidance.
Izzy accuses Jeremy of using the trip for a photo opportunity and campaign optics.
Jeremy admits to his affair with Clarisse Betario but claims Izzy was never truly invested in the relationship because of her lingering feelings for Nate.
Jeremy proposes a political marriage with an open relationship, where both parties can have affairs discreetly.
Izzy removes her engagement ring, places it in Jeremy’s palm, and formally calls off the engagement.
She delivers a speech listing the mistakes she made: settling for parental approval, thinking love could grow, and accepting someone who doesn’t understand devotion.
Sergeant Gray escorts Jeremy out after Izzy requests assistance.
In the solitude of her room, Izzy acknowledges that Jeremy’s accusation about Nate is accurate—she has never moved on.

Character Development

Izzy Astor: This chapter marks a pivotal shift. Izzy moves from passive acceptance of her parents’ wishes and Jeremy’s infidelity to active self-assertion. She recognizes her pattern of seeking male approval (first her father, then Jeremy, and even Nate) and decides to break it. By ending the engagement, she reclaims agency over her life and future.
Jeremy Covington: Jeremy is fully unmasked as a calculating politician who views relationships as transactions. His inability to accept “no” underscores his entitlement and emotional immaturity. He uses manipulation (smile number three, guilt-tripping) but ultimately reveals his true priority: career and family optics.
Nate Phelan (mentioned offstage): Although not physically present in the scene, Nate’s influence dominates the conversation. Jeremy correctly identifies that Izzy has never stopped loving Nate, and Izzy’s internal admission solidifies his role as the emotional barrier to any other relationship.

Themes, Symbols, or Motifs

Authentic Love vs. Political Convenience: The central conflict of the chapter. Jeremy treats love as a strategic alliance, while Izzy begins to realize she deserves a genuine emotional connection.
Self-Worth and Breaking Patterns: Izzy explicitly names her mistakes—settling, seeking approval, ignoring her gut. The chapter is about reclaiming self-respect.
The Engagement Ring as an Anchor: The ring symbolizes obligation, parental control, and a past Izzy can no longer accept. Removing it is an act of liberation.
Nate as an Invisible Barrier: Jeremy’s accusation and Izzy’s final reflection establish Nate as a constant emotional presence, even when absent. This reinforces the theme of unresolved love and the difficulty of moving on.

Why This Chapter Matters

Chapter 15 is the emotional climax of Izzy’s romantic subplot with Jeremy. It permanently severs the engagement that has been a source of tension since the opening of the novel. This decision frees Izzy to fully confront her feelings for Nate without the guilt or obligation of a commitment to Jeremy. The chapter also deepens Izzy’s character, showing her capacity for self-reflection and strength. It sets the stage for the inevitable confrontation and potential reconciliation with Nate, as she is now emotionally available—if Nate can forgive the deceit that kept them apart.

Study Questions and Answers

1. What does Jeremy’s proposal of an open marriage reveal about his character and his view of their relationship?
Jeremy sees marriage as a business arrangement rather than a romantic partnership. His willingness to share Izzy with Nate while he continues affairs demonstrates his prioritization of public image over genuine intimacy. It shows he values the political alliance with Izzy’s family more than her emotional well-being.

2. Why does Izzy finally return the engagement ring, and what does her speech about mistakes signify?
Izzy returns the ring because she realizes she has been living for her parents’ approval and her own comfort, not for authentic love. Her speech enumerating her mistakes—settling, ignoring her gut, staying with someone who doesn’t value devotion—marks her transition from passive follower to active chooser of her own happiness.

3. How does the chapter establish Nate’s importance to Izzy even though he is not in the room?
Jeremy’s accusation that Izzy has been pining for Nate for two years forces Izzy to confront the truth she has been avoiding. Her final admission that she never got her heart back from Nate solidifies his role as the unresolved love of her life. This sets up the central emotional conflict for the remainder of the novel: can she and Nate overcome past hurts to be together?