In the Likely Event - A Complete Book Guide

⚠️ Spoiler Warning: This guide contains detailed spoilers for the entire novel. Proceed only if you've finished reading or are comfortable knowing the plot.

Quick Facts

• Author: Rebecca Yarros
• Publication Year: 2023
• Genre: Contemporary romance, military romance
• Setting: Multiple timelines and locations: 2011 New York to St. Louis flight; 2014 Tybee Island, Georgia; 2015 Georgetown, Washington D.C.; 2016 Illinois; 2017 Fiji; 2021 Kabul and Kandahar, Afghanistan; Epilogue in Maine.
• Narrator: Third-person limited, alternating points of view between Isabeau "Izzy" Astor and Nathaniel "Nate" Phelan.

Short Summary

"In the Likely Event" follows the decade-spanning relationship between Isabeau "Izzy" Astor and Nathaniel "Nate" Phelan, who meet on a doomed flight in 2011. After surviving a plane crash together, they form an instant bond that is repeatedly tested by military deployments, career ambitions, family expectations, and poor timing. The story intensifies in 2021 when Izzy, now a congressional aide, reconnects with Nate—an Army Special Forces operator—during the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal while searching for her missing photojournalist sister. Through miscommunications, a hidden engagement ring, and years of longing, the couple must finally decide whether love can overcome duty and trauma.

Full Summary

Part One: The Crash and Connection (2011-2014)

In November 2011, Izzy Astor boards Flight 826 from New York to Atlanta, terrified of flying. She meets Nate Phelan, a nineteen-year-old heading to Army basic training. They bond over books and conversation; during takeoff, Nate holds her hand to calm her. The wing explodes, and the plane crash-lands in the Missouri River. Nate helps Izzy and other passengers evacuate, and they swim to shore. Izzy suffers a concussion and a ruptured spleen. Nate lies that he is her husband to stay with her at the hospital, but Army representatives arrive and take him to basic training. He leaves not knowing if she will survive.

Months later, Izzy receives Nate's backpack from the airline, containing a hoodie and an iPod with the name "N. Phelan." She learns his full name. In 2014, on Tybee Island, Nate (now an Army operator) spots Izzy at a bar during his last weekend before deploying to Afghanistan. He proves he remembers personal details from the crash. They reconnect, and Izzy chooses not to board her flight home, effectively pursuing him despite his deployment. They spend one day together, sharing a powerful first kiss, and Nate asks her to live fully without waiting.

Part Two: Reunions and Missed Opportunities (2015-2017)

Over the next years, their long-distance relationship struggles. Nate surprises Izzy for her birthday in 2015, but he refuses to start a long-distance relationship because of his impending deployment to Fort Lewis-McChord. In 2016, Izzy receives a Google Alert about Nate's mother's obituary and rushes to Illinois for the funeral. After a tense confrontation with Nate's abusive father, they become intimate, and Izzy realizes she loves him. But Nate remains emotionally guarded due to his PTSD and guilt over a friend's death.

In June 2017, Nate and Izzy meet in Fiji. Izzy proposes they move together after his next tour, but Nate refuses to leave the military, and she gives an ultimatum. When Nate doesn't show up for their planned trip to Palau, Izzy is heartbroken and ends their pursuit. She becomes engaged to Jeremy Covington, a political alliance her parents approve of.

Part Three: Afghanistan Crisis and Reconciliation (2021)

In August 2021, Nate is pulled from leave to Kabul for a security detail. The congressional aide he's assigned to is Izzy. Their reunion is explosive—Izzy thought Nate was dead, and she is now engaged. Nate refuses to let anyone else protect her. Izzy reveals she added two northern provinces to the itinerary to search for her missing photojournalist sister, Serena.

Nate and Izzy navigate the dangerous evacuation. Serena is found in Mazar-i-Sharif but refuses to leave without her interpreter. Izzy confronts Jeremy, who flew in to join her, and breaks off the engagement after he admits to cheating. During a rocket attack at Kandahar Airport, Nate shields Izzy and helps an Afghan girls' chess team evacuate. His squadmates reveal his call sign is "Navarre," referencing the legend of Isabeau—a sign of his hidden devotion.

After the chaotic evacuation, Izzy and Nate argue about the past. Nate reveals a diamond ring he has carried for three years, showing he never stopped loving her. He also confesses his guilt over his friend Jude's death. They reconcile emotionally and physically as the Taliban takes Kabul. Nate arranges for Izzy, Serena, and Taj to evacuate on a private plane. He makes her promise to board without her sister if necessary, and she makes him promise to come home.

Part Four: Resolution and Epilogue

Six weeks later, Nate stands outside a behavioral-health clinic, unable to enter. His friend Torres urges him to seek help for his PTSD and grief. Nate finally confesses to a therapist that he has been talking to a dead friend, marking his first honest step toward healing.

In October 2021, Izzy boards a flight to the Maldives, having quit her political job. Nate surprises her by switching flights to join her. He reveals he has left the military and is in therapy. They agree to stop leaving their relationship to fate and commit to a shared future.

Five years later in Maine, the couple enjoys a peaceful afternoon. Nate grades papers; Izzy reviews a nonprofit briefing. They abandon work to go to bed, finally achieving lasting happiness and domestic stability.

Main Characters

• Isabeau "Izzy" Astor – A congressional aide and survivor of a plane crash who reconnects with Nate during the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal while searching for her missing photojournalist sister. (Izzy Astor)
• Nathaniel "Nate" Phelan – A U.S. Army Special Forces operator who meets Izzy on a doomed flight in 2011 and spends a decade torn between his military career and his love for her. (Nate Phelan)
• Serena Astor – Izzy's photojournalist sister who goes missing in Afghanistan, prompting Izzy's dangerous mission to find her. (Serena Astor)
• Jeremy Covington – Izzy's fiancé who cheated on her and represents the political marriage she settles for while pining for Nate. (Jeremy Covington)
• Torres (Julian Torres) – Nate's fellow soldier and friend who pushes him to confront his PTSD and choose a life with Izzy. (Torres)
• Graham (Sergeant Gray) – A member of Nate's security team who interacts with Izzy during the Kabul evacuation and reveals Nate's call sign "Navarre." (Graham)

Themes

• Fate versus timing – The story contrasts serendipitous encounters with the characters' inability to make their relationship work at the right moment across a decade. (Fate versus timing)
• Military sacrifice and PTSD – Nate's career forces him to compartmentalize trauma, leading to guilt, nightmares, and difficulty committing to Izzy. (Military sacrifice and PTSD)
• Trauma recovery – Both Izzy and Nate carry physical and emotional scars from the plane crash and combat, learning to heal through vulnerability and seeking help. (Trauma recovery)
• Communication and miscommunication – Unspoken feelings, misinterpreted proposals, and hidden motives drive the central conflict, resolved only when the characters finally verbalize their love and fears. (Communication and miscommunication)
• Love versus duty – The characters repeatedly choose between personal desire and professional obligation, from Nate's deployments to Izzy's political career and family expectations. (Love versus duty)

Symbols

• The engagement ring – A diamond ring Nate carries for three years symbolizes his hidden commitment and the couple's struggle over timing and readiness. (The engagement ring)
• iPod and music – An iPod from the plane crash and songs Nate plays for Izzy during flights represent their shared connection and comfort during trauma. (iPod and music)
• Plane crash (Flight 826) – The 2011 crash-landing serves as the origin of their bond and a recurring source of fear and intimacy. (Plane crash)
• The family farm – Nate's inheritance of his mother's farm represents his past, his father's abuse, and the domestic future he eventually builds with Izzy in Maine. (The family farm)

Ending Overview

Nate enters therapy for his PTSD and guilt over a friend's death. Izzy quits her political job and flies to the Maldives, where Nate joins her after leaving the military. They commit to a shared future, no longer leaving things to fate. The epilogue, set five years later in Maine, shows them happy and settled, abandoning work for a quiet afternoon together. (Ending explained)

Chapter-by-Chapter Breakdown

Frequently Asked Questions

1. What is "In the Likely Event" about? It follows the turbulent romance between Izzy Astor and Nate Phelan, who meet during a plane crash and struggle with timing, military duty, and personal trauma across a decade.

2. Who are the main characters? Izzy Astor (congressional aide), Nate Phelan (Special Forces operator), Serena Astor (missing photojournalist sister), and Jeremy Covington (Izzy's fiancé). (Full characters)

3. Where does the story take place? Multiple settings: 2011 flight crash, Tybee Island, Georgetown, Illinois, Fiji, and the 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal (Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar-i-Sharif), ending in Maine.

4. How does the plane crash affect Izzy and Nate? The crash forms an instant bond between them; Izzy suffers a concussion and ruptured spleen, while Nate stays by her side until forced to leave for basic training. The trauma haunts both throughout the story.

5. Why do they separate for years? Nate's military career, his PTSD, his refusal to commit long-distance, and Izzy's eventual engagement to Jeremy keep them apart. Miscommunication and poor timing repeatedly sabotage their connection.

6. What happens in the Afghanistan timeline? Izzy reconnects with Nate during the August 2021 evacuation. She is searching for her sister Serena. They work together to evacuate an Afghan chess team and other civilians, confronting their unresolved feelings amid danger.

7. Do Izzy and Nate end up together? Yes. Nate leaves the military and enters therapy; Izzy quits her job. They reunite in the Maldives and commit to a future, shown happily settled in Maine five years later. (Ending explained)

8. What are the major themes? Fate vs. timing, military sacrifice and PTSD, trauma recovery, communication breakdowns, and love versus duty. (Themes overview)

Explore More

• Character profiles
• Themes in depth
• Symbols analysis
• Ending explained
• Questions and answers
• Take the quiz
• Essay prompts