Essay prompts In the Likely Event Rebecca Yarros

In the Likely Event: 12 Analytical Essay Prompts

This page offers 12 analytical essay prompts tailored to Rebecca Yarros’s In the Likely Event. Each prompt targets a specific literary element—character change, causality, relationships, contrasting scenes, themes, symbols, structure, foreshadowing, or the ending—and is supported by a defensible thesis direction and scene- or chapter-specific evidence leads. Use these prompts to craft focused, evidence-rich essays that engage deeply with the novel’s unique plot and character arcs.

For broader analysis, consult the character study pages and theme guides.

1. Izzy Astor’s Arc from Obligation to Agency

Why This Prompt Matters: Izzy begins the novel defined by others’ expectations—her parents’ demands, her fiancé Jeremy’s political convenience, and her own fear of flying. Tracing how she seizes control reveals the novel’s core statement about self-determination.

Sample Thesis Direction: Izzy’s true growth is not in choosing between Nate and Jeremy, but in learning to prioritize her own desires over external approval, culminating in her decision to quit her political job and fly to the Maldives unannounced.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 8: Her parents refuse to cut a cruise short after her crash, reinforcing the “hood ornament” status she describes. She finds Nate’s name—Nathaniel Phelan—via his backpack tag.
  • Chapter 15: She breaks her engagement to Jeremy, rejecting his open-marriage proposal and admitting she never moved on from Nate.
  • Chapter 33: Izzy quits her job and boards a flight, choosing trust over fear.

2. The Plane Crash as a Causal Catalyst

Why This Prompt Matters: The crash in Chapter 2/4 is not merely a plot device; it directly conditions every major relationship decision, from Izzy’s fear of flying to Nate’s protective instincts and their eventual reunion in Kabul.

Sample Thesis Direction: The crash creates a permanent bond that both characters resist and rely upon: it gives Nate a purpose (keeping Izzy alive) and gives Izzy a yardstick for love she cannot find elsewhere.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 2: Nate holds Izzy’s hand during takeoff; they bond over books before the wing explodes.
  • Chapter 4: Izzy gives away her life jacket and passes Nate’s to a mother; they swim to shore together.
  • Chapter 12: At Tybee Island, Izzy and Nate swim and reveal their scars—the plane’s and an IED’s—showing the crash marks their bodies and psyches.

3. The Sister Bond: Izzy and Serena

Why This Prompt Matters: Serena is Izzy’s only consistent family support, yet she also threatens the relationship by revealing Izzy’s hidden motives. This sibling dynamic complicates the central romance.

Sample Thesis Direction: Serena functions as both Izzy’s conscience and her foil: she exposes Izzy’s lies about working for Senator Lauren, yet she also models the fearless pursuit of purpose that Izzy eventually adopts.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 8: Serena stays by Izzy’s hospital bed, whispering, “You have me.”
  • Chapter 13: Serena accidentally tells Nate that Izzy took the job to end the war that separated them.
  • Chapter 31: Serena retrieves Nate’s ring and Julian’s dog tag, forcing Izzy to recognize the truth about Julian’s death.

4. Contrasting Settings: Tybee Island vs. Kabul

Why This Prompt Matters: The novel shuttles between idyllic beach escapes and the war-torn chaos of Afghanistan. Comparing these settings illuminates how place determines the characters’ emotional availability.

Sample Thesis Direction: The beach settings—Tybee Island, Fiji—represent temporal escape and potential, while Kabul represents inescapable reality and sacrifice; Nate and Izzy’s intimacy only deepens when they confront the war zone together.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 10 (Tybee Island): Nate and Izzy reconnect on a patio, talking for hours; he tells her he remembers every detail from the crash.
  • Chapter 20 (Fiji): Izzy gives an ultimatum; Nate refuses to let her move to Fort Bragg.
  • Chapter 17 (Kabul): During the Kandahar evacuation, Nate speaks Pashto, and the runway explodes—forcing them to operate as a team.

5. Fate versus Timing as a Central Theme

Why This Prompt Matters: The novel explicitly contrasts “serendipity” (Chapter 10) with missed timing. Analyzing this theme shows how the author negotiates destiny versus human choice.

Sample Thesis Direction: While the narrative initially frames the relationship as fated (crash, Tybee reunion), it ultimately argues that timing—not fate—is the real obstacle, and that both characters must actively choose each other.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 10: Izzy calls fate “serendipity”; Nate deflects questions about deployment.
  • Chapter 16: Nate refuses a long-distance relationship after his PTSD episode, prioritizing future possibility over present commitment.
  • Chapter 33: Izzy and Nate agree to stop leaving things to chance and board a plane together.

6. The Ring as a Symbol of Secret Commitment

Why This Prompt Matters: The diamond ring Nate carries for three years contrasts sharply with Jeremy’s engagement ring. Its revelation in Kabul marks the emotional climax of the novel.

Sample Thesis Direction: The ring Nate keeps hidden around his neck symbolizes a one-sided commitment that both protects and wounds: it proves his love but also represents the refusal to act until crisis forces honesty.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 25: Nate cuts the tape on his necklace, revealing the ring; he accuses Izzy of not wanting him when it mattered.
  • Chapter 29: Izzy retrieves the same ring and confronts Nate about his trauma-driven proposal.
  • Chapter 31: Serena gives Izzy the ring back, now worn on Nate’s chain.

7. Non-Linear Structure and Emotional Payoff

Why This Prompt Matters: The novel jumps between 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2021. This structure mirrors the fractured nature of a long-distance relationship and forces the reader to piece together the history.

Sample Thesis Direction: The non-linear timeline prevents the reader from resolving the relationship prematurely, allowing each flashback to retroactively deepen the stakes of the 2021 Kabul evacuation.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 2 (2011) meeting is immediately followed by Chapter 3 (2021) reunion, creating tension about what happened in between.
  • Chapter 18 (2016) funeral scene reveals Nate’s family trauma just before Chapter 19 (2021) rocket attack.
  • Chapter 26 (2017) proposal rejection is only explained fully in Chapter 27 (2021) when Nate confesses his guilt over Jude.

8. Foreshadowing Through “Northern Downpour”

Why This Prompt Matters: The song “Northern Downpour” recurs across the novel, from the crash to the helicopter in Kabul. Tracking its appearances reveals how music functions as a shared emotional language.

Sample Thesis Direction: The song “Northern Downpour” foreshadows emotional release and reunion after periods of drought, mirroring how Nate and Izzy’s connection persists through long silences.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 2: Izzy asks Nate which song is his favorite; he says “Northern Downpour.”
  • Chapter 7: In the helicopter to Jalalabad, Nate plays the song for Izzy to calm her fear of flying.
  • Chapter 33: The novel ends with a flight—a tacit echo of the song’s promise of rain after suffering.

9. The Ending: Domestic Peace as Earned Resolution

Why This Prompt Matters: The epilogue set in Maine five years later provides a quiet, un-dramatic conclusion. Analyzing this choice reveals what the novel values as a happy ending.

Sample Thesis Direction: By ending with domestic boredom—grading papers, reviewing memos, and choosing sex over work—Yarros argues that peace, not adventure, is the ultimate reward for survival and sacrifice.

Evidence Leads:

  • Epilogue: Nate grades papers; Izzy reviews a nonprofit briefing; they abandon work for intimacy.
  • Chapter 32: Nate seeks therapy at Fort Bragg, his first honest step toward healing.
  • Chapter 33: Izzy quits her political job, removing the professional ambition that once kept them apart.

10. Military Sacrifice and PTSD in Nate’s Arc

Why This Prompt Matters: Nate’s decision to leave the Army and enter therapy is a major character shift. The novel ties his PTSD to survivor’s guilt and compartmentalization.

Sample Thesis Direction: Nate’s PTSD is not just a symptom of combat; it stems from his refusal to grieve his friend Jude, and his recovery begins only when he confesses his guilt aloud.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 22: After a nightmare, Nate pins Izzy; he dives into the ocean in horror.
  • Chapter 27: Nate reveals Jude died from a snakebite during selection; he blames himself for not reporting it.
  • Chapter 32: Nate walks into the behavioral-health clinic and admits he has been talking to a dead friend for four years.

11. Communication Breakdown and the Failed Proposal

Why This Prompt Matters: The central misunderstanding—Izzy says “I can’t” instead of “I won’t”—drives three years of separation. This prompt examines how the novel uses miscommunication to explore love versus fear.

Sample Thesis Direction: Izzy’s refusal of Nate’s proposal is rooted in her belief that he is proposing out of grief, not love, and the novel ultimately validates her skepticism even as it reunites them.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 26: Nate proposes after Julian’s funeral; Izzy refuses, saying the timing is wrong.
  • Chapter 27: Nate recites her exact words from that night, showing how he has nursed the wound.
  • Chapter 29: Izzy explains she said no because she thought he wasn’t himself; they reconcile.

12. Love versus Duty: Nate’s Choice to Leave the Military

Why This Prompt Matters: For the entire novel, Nate prioritizes his military career over the relationship. His eventual decision to leave represents the final resolution of the central conflict.

Sample Thesis Direction: Nate’s choice to leave the Special Forces is not a rejection of duty but a redefinition of it: he accepts that his presence in Izzy’s life is the mission he has been training for all along.

Evidence Leads:

  • Chapter 20: Nate chooses Fort Bragg over moving to be with Izzy, saying he won’t hold her back.
  • Chapter 30: Torres forces Nate to admit he wants a life with Izzy more than the Army; Nate arranges her evacuation.
  • Chapter 33: Nate reveals he left the military and is in therapy, committing to a shared future.

For further reading, see the questions and answers page or explore specific themes like trauma recovery and communication.