In the Likely Event: Chapter 9 Summary & Analysis
⚠️ Spoiler Warning: This guide contains detailed spoilers for the entire novel. Proceed only if you've finished reading or are comfortable knowing the plot.
Summary
The chapter opens in Kabul, Afghanistan, in August 2021. Izzy Astor, a congressional aide, is working at the US embassy with her team. She crosses paths with Nate Green (Sergeant Green), who continues to serve as her personal security. Ben Holt, a colleague, approaches Izzy to ask if she filed her report to Senator Lauren. He notices a call from Jeremy, Izzy’s fiancé, on her phone. Nate intercepts the call and declines it at Izzy’s quiet request. Ben probes about Jeremy; Izzy deflects. Nate warns Izzy that Ben seems too eager for information and is a “piece of shit” for waiting for her lowest moment. Izzy acknowledges Nate’s intuition, recalling he has always been a good judge of character.
Later, a nightmare triggers the memory of the plane crash (flight 826) that nearly killed Izzy years ago. In the dream, she is trapped in the sinking fuselage, and Nate rescues her. She wakes up screaming at 4 a.m. Nate bursts in, weapon drawn, and after clearing the room, he holds her on the couch. He wraps a blanket around her and strokes her arm until her heart rate slows. He admits he sometimes has nightmares where he can’t save her from the current. Izzy asks how they can stay so close for two weeks and ignore everything between them. Nate asks for mercy, telling her to ignore it. She agrees.
Izzy notices a folder on the coffee table containing the latest posts by American journalists. She recognizes an article by her sister Serena. Nate identifies the background building as the Shrine of Ali (Blue Mosque), concluding Serena is in Mazar-i-Sharif. Izzy feels relief that Serena is alive and now knowable location.
Key Events
- Nate declines a call from Jeremy on Izzy’s phone after seeing the contact photo.
- Nate warns Izzy about Ben Holt’s intentions and calls him a “piece of shit.”
- Izzy has a vivid nightmare about the plane crash (flight 826) where she drowns and Nate rescues her.
- Nate comforts Izzy after her nightmare, holding her on the couch, stroking her arm, and asking if a bath would help. He shares his own recurring nightmare of failing to save her.
- Izzy and Nate agree to “ignore” their unresolved feelings for the remaining 12 days of his assignment.
- Izzy finds a printed article by her sister Serena; Nate identifies the location as Mazar-i-Sharif, confirming Serena is alive.
Character Development
Izzy Astor: The chapter deepens Izzy’s internal conflict between her current engagement to Jeremy and her lingering connection to Nate. Her nightmare reveals the severity of her trauma from the plane crash; years of therapy have reduced but not eliminated the episodes. She is professionally competent—filing reports on time despite emotional exhaustion—but personally fragile, seeking comfort from Nate even as she knows it is improper. Her decision to “ignore” the tension with Nate shows both self-preservation and avoidance.
Nate Green: Nate’s role as Izzy’s protector goes beyond professional duty. He reacts instantly to her scream, clearing her room before offering physical comfort. His admission of nightmares about failing to save her shows his own unresolved trauma and his deep investment in Izzy’s safety. The request for “mercy” highlights his vulnerability: he cannot afford to let their old feelings resurface. His judgment of Ben’s character is accurate, reinforcing his perceptiveness.
Ben Holt: Presented as a persistent, possibly opportunistic colleague. He pressures Izzy to share details about Jeremy, and Nate’s warning labels him as someone who preys on vulnerability.
Jeremy (offstage): Though not present, Jeremy’s three calls to Izzy represent external pressure and the obligation Izzy feels toward her engagement. Nate memorizes his contact details, foreshadowing future tension.
Themes, Symbols, or Motifs
Trauma and Survival: Izzy’s nightmare is a direct replay of the plane crash, linking water, drowning, and abandonment. The dream ends with Nate’s rescue, showing her reliance on him even in her subconscious. The waking ritual of reciting her name and story is a coping mechanism.
Vulnerability vs. Duty: Both Izzy and Nate are bound by professional roles (congressional aide and security detail) but their personal history threatens those boundaries. The physical intimacy after the nightmare—lapping on the couch, stroking her arm—blurs lines. The agreement to “ignore” their feelings is a reluctant attempt to restore duty.
Mercy and Self-Preservation: Nate’s plea for mercy (“have some goddamn mercy on me”) reframes his stoicism as survival. He cannot afford emotional exposure; Izzy’s proximity is a threat to his control.
Signs of Life: The article by Serena provides a concrete link to Izzy’s sister, turning vague worry into actionable knowledge. The identification of the Blue Mosque symbolizes hope and the ability to locate loved ones even in chaos.
Why This Chapter Matters
Chapter 9 is pivotal for character development and emotional stakes. It is the first extended look at Izzy’s ongoing PTSD from the plane crash, establishing the event as a foundational trauma that still shapes her choices and relationships. The nightmare scene creates an intimate bond between Izzy and Nate, forcing them to confront feelings that have been dormant for years. The chapter also advances the subplot about Serena, giving Izzy a clear goal and connecting the Afghanistan setting to a broader family tension. Nate’s vulnerability and Izzy’s conflicted loyalty set the stage for future conflicts with Jeremy.
Study Questions & Answers
1. What does Nate’s reaction to Ben Holt reveal about his character?
Nate immediately identifies Ben as a threat based on gut feeling and later confirms it by learning Ben had rejected advances. This shows Nate’s protective instinct, his ability to read people quickly, and his willingness to shield Izzy from emotional manipulation, even in small matters.
2. How does Izzy’s nightmare function as both a flashback and a symbol?
The nightmare replays the moment of the plane crash (the sinking fuselage, the stuck seatbelt), illustrating the persistence of her trauma. Symbolically, water represents the loss of control and near-death experience; Nate’s rescue in the dream mirrors her real-life reliance on him. The dream underscores that she still sees him as her savior, complicating her engagement to Jeremy.
3. What is the significance of Serena’s article appearing at the end of the chapter?
The article provides concrete information about Serena’s location, shifting Izzy from anxious helplessness to a more active search. It also reintroduces the sibling relationship as a secondary plotline. Nate’s ability to identify the Blue Mosque from a photo reinforces his expertise and their collaborative dynamic, linking the personal and professional spheres.